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Thursday, September 19, 2013

The Return of the RINGGIT...


SGDMYR


USDMYR

Ringgit is back with a big revenge. :). Clear bearish divergences for both SGDMYR and USDMYR. which also made FCPO volatile with a downward bias overall. Even with good export data of 14% on month, it was not enough for it to push FCPO prices as the ringgit strengthen tremendously. Will have to look at tomorrow's export data to weigh which one is more important as tomorrow is the 20th of the month.

FKLI on the other hand was on steroids due to the FOMC decision on maintaining their "money printing" of USD85bil a month. well, of course that made the Ringgit strengthen since they are "printing" more money. :p. If regionals were to continue this uptrend, 1800 for FKLI may not last long as of today, it is already at 1790ish points.

Hope everyone did change their monies during the crazy uptrend. :)

Wednesday, September 11, 2013

When the two markets go inverse in direction..

Yes i know, i haven't been writing much in this journey of mine. Been really busy lately. now with my new biz on hand, it really takes alot of time both in the financial trade sector and also the new business i'm in. Well, anyhow, i'll talk about the new biz later. this post will be for the current standing in the two markets FCPO and FKLI.

These few weeks had been really good for me and i've developed different strategies along the way which seems to work. But as always, the saying goes "Be humble, or be humbled!". Hence, my mind is always open for any market changes/movements.

Ok, lets start with FCPO:



It's been bearish eversince two days back on the bearish engulf and a gap down below 2400 today confirms it during the morning session. From the daily chart, there are many signals showing downward signal. MACD lines and MACD-H are all crossed and into the negative zone. ADX also showing that the bears are just starting to take over the bulls which indicates more confirmation on the bears. However, having seen all this, FCPO closed below 2350 and hence the next target support would be 2330-2335. If FCPO does not open strongly down, we may see a rebound. While writing this, crude and soybean oil is also on the bear with both -2.21% and -0.48% and also the ringgit has strengthened against USD and SGD also thus giving more confirmations that FCPO should be heading south.

Now on the FKLI side:


FKLI however has a much rosier picture painted. Signals and candlestick patterns are showing strong rebound upwards with Dow Jones rising +104.38 while writing this. Euro zone also are all very perky with big gap ups. However, what it seemed to be the main factor was that China's industrial production data beats estimates and also concerns over USA-led strike on Syria had eased. Indicator wise is like the total opposite of FCPO with MACD lines crossing up and MACD-H ticking above in the positive region. Candlestick patterns showing very strong bull movements with two tails and a long white candle on 9th Sept 2013. ADX also showing that the bulls are taking over to rule the market. However, on the local side, Malaysia had been downgraded by Fitch Ratings which may or may not come back and loom over the market. If we have measurable steps from the govt, then i believe the market will continue to bull but if not, then it will be tough to see the bulls go any further. Nevertheless, as of now, from the chart it seems that bulls had a big major upper-hand. The strengthening of the ringgit probably signaled the market on better buying power which in turn better development. Well, i hope that would be true but sometimes it's tough to see that when we are constantly being lied to by our very own so called "leaders". As of immediate support would be around 1755-1757 and the next resistance would be 1780. breaking any of these will definitely follow by the movement to that direction but on an overall, bulls are still gonna reign for a while.