Similarities? You decide...

US CBOT Soy Beans

FCPO

I'll be focusing on FCPO more often as it has a better trend pattern than FKLI and also frankly, kinda caught up with work so won't analyze FKLI so much. 

Today's post is gonna be real short. My question here is simple, do you see the similarities? 

So, you decide and plan your strategy. :)

Good luck.

Do I "Play" the market

This was an interesting question I had over the weekend when I was in Genting relaxing with my better half. "Oh u PLAY the market?". I had to pause a short 2-3 seconds to fire up my "intel quad core" brain to search for an answer. Well, of coz, I had to look up deep for a diplomatic answer. After all, he was a friend of mine. 

So my answer was very simple and I answered; "I don't play the market, I trade in the market". It may seem like a vocabulary lesson here but as they say, "what comes out from the mouth is a process of the mind." I've witness people, they think of the market as a "get-rich-quick-no brainer-field" and their "jobs" are the "serious" thing that their doing. To a certain extent, yes, their "jobs" are still their main source of income and they should be serious in everything they do there. However, that doesn't mean the stock/commodities/forex/Bonds/futures and etc markets are a place of "fun". Well, maybe to some people who does this for a "hobby" or fun but 99% of the people in there are just as or more serious than what they are doing.

This is extremely true because I've witness people who thinks he/she can get rich when they enter the market right away..and when they don't make it (which they will most definitely will not make it) start cursing about the market saying it's dangerous, it's risky and the public favorite, it's gambling. My question to them, how long did u study in the university to be an entry point engineer? How long did u study before you became an entry point IT consultant? How long did u study to become an entry level doctor? 3-7 years (maybe 7 for medicine field). And you expect to "make it big" in the market after some so-called book that you read or just a weekend seminar? I'd say you're better off going to casinos then. The thrill is higher there. 

Many people don't realize that it's not the market that is risky. It's the person himself/herself that is risky. Doing something without the knowledge is crazy and definitely at the highest risk one could ever be in. Every trade I make in the market, is a series of calculated risk and reward ratio at the highest level of seriousness I can ever be. It's like me in a relationship, I definitely don't play around in a relationship as I'm serious right to the end.

Hopefully all that, I hope I did answer my friends question. 

Divergences Alert!..But there's still room for the current movement..

Well, simply put it, it had been rough sideways trades for both markets last 1-2 weeks. With issues on Ukraine war tensions and also the crops for Soy Beans are expected to increase with dry spell weather, it had made the market eratic and jumpy, trading on a difficult sideways range. Nevertheless, as we all know that after a sideways movement, a trend will follow..but which one? Let us take a look at these markets:

FCPO

FCPO had been in a downtrend since 11 Mar 2014 and started to do a crazy sideways range trading on 9th April 2014. Nevertheless, there might be a possible bullish divergence forming but has to let the price press down further before the full bullish divergence is formed. As we can see from the chart, prices are dropping while the MACD-H may have shallower curve. The red circle indicates that the 2nd downward curve has yet to be formed and hence it is quite likely that the FCPO may head southwards towards stronger supports at 2535-2540 and also 2490-2500. Stochastics had been heading downwards eversince 29th April 2014 and a gap down on 2nd May 2014 had gave the bears the power. Fibonacci 50% level is at 2526-2530 which can also provide a critical support level before it heads for the 61.8% level at 2434. Candlesticks are still below 12,22,32 EMA and no crossings of the EMA lines had taken place which means the selling pressure ought to continue for a fair bit of time more. 

FKLI

As mentioned earlier, Ukraine tensions had made it a priority in markets beating upbeat job data last week in the USA. The historical high at 1877 is still left uncontested and it seems that 1871.5 is the highest it could go. Candlestick pattern today shows an imminent engulfment that erased all gains from the previous 4 days and  Adding to that, there is a clear bearish divergence between price, MACD-H and Stochastics. However, since it did a pretty big drop today, there may be some rebound first in the morning and then later on continue with the trend.

Personal View:

FCPO: The market may resume the bears a little while more before any bullish divergences may show. Hence, there may still be room for shorting but always have your stops in place. Be ready and alert the market starts to rebound. Place urself full of strategies where u can just switch strategy there and then.

FKLI: I would look for positions to short. Hence, short at strength.