Last Prayer?

feels like my soul has left me...i have no emotion nor happiness. i don't feel myself anymore. sometimes i wonder why i am put to this test. i hope i have paid off all my sins from the past and the current present for im not sure how long i can last.



i feel like giving up everything as i am so tired as all i wanted was everything to be fine around me. but nothing seems to get any better and i am constantly the target. i also hoped that i have served the purpose of my presence to others. if my presence is to make others happy but i suffer for that, so be it for i really don't know how much longer i can stay sane. so be it. if that can make things better, so be it. i have no other solution anymore and my condition is getting worse. I just weep silently inside where nobody knows but put up a strong character. sometimes i do wish to reach out but when i do, i become the target eventually. hence, everything stays inside.



i tried very hard, but nobody knows. maybe it's not enuf but i dont have any more strength. im tired and stressed out every single day. im sinking into a further depression where people sees it as im cutting a forlong face but deep inside me, i think im sinking further from my depression. im really about to explode. sometimes i do ask, what is my purpose here. what have i done so bad that i deserve this. sometimes i pray that if my presence is not wanted/needed, lord, please take me with u. as much as my tears are rolling down as i write this, but im really can't feel myself anymore.

lord, i have tried. but i dont know if i did it right the way u wanted it to be. somehow, i always felt it was a one way traffic. when i reach out, im never heard. lord, u created me and u know that i don't publicly pen down my sorrows in a public reached media, but this is my last resort to be heard for open discussions are never working no matter how i tried. For in the end, the fault is always to be mine. hence, the dead silence that was kept all these while. i was never heard. for i cant be heard. im going crazy by the days and that is really sapping into my life and my health. i don't have anyone who will support me when i'm in trouble. Everyone just wants a piece of me for themselves and doesn't bother about how i truly feel or going through. People say voicing out is a good way for communication. sometimes i feel that is just utter bullshit as it only works if the other parties would love to listen and care about your problems. if they are just thinking for themselves, to them it's just excuses. somehow, lord, i failed in that. i failed getting support that i need. and im very tired and saddened especially with my depression state.

lord, if u have any mercy on me, please...take me with u. forgive me for all my sins i may have caused. then, now and in future. if taking my life can give others happiness, then i surrender everything to u lord. u decide for me. 

The Aftermath Of A Historical General Election

For those who doesn't know, Malaysia just had the 14th General Elections and created history where the opposition party Pakatan Harapan defeated a 6 decade rule of the previous ruling party Barisan Nasional. This is the first time in history that the opposition party won and takes over the government. It was really intense. We know that alot of people voted for change and change it was.

However, being a full time trader and investor, we know that whichever party wins, it doesn't matter as we can earn both ways (up or down). We already had our expectations on what to do today on the 14th May 2018. Therefore, we are covered on what to do during today's trading sessions and my students raked in extremely great profits today regardless on who is currently in power. We already knew and we reacted to the market's movement once it opened today and because of that, the impact did not really make any  on us traders and investors. Even before today, we were discussing that the Malaysian market may not drop as bad as what people elaborated to be and in fact sprung up strongly and closed higher compared to last week. Hence, this is an indication of confidence to the current new government. 

Now, i'm not going to write about politics or the market or even charts but what i would really like to stress on in this post is on the attitude of the people towards both pre and post elections aftermath. We Malaysians have forgotten we are still MALAYSIANS no matter which party we support. Family members, friends, relatives and so on may have different views from each other on politics but after a while, the routine in your circle will continue despite whoever is in power now. I've seen friends and families get into heated arguments due to different opinions in politics just to feed each other's ego on who is wrong and who is right. I find that totally sad and very childish like. Hence, here's my take to both groups of supporters:

For the BN supporters:

STOP being sore losers and cry babies and continuously want to find faults and find arguments with those who supported PH. I totally feel that is just so childish. Feels like seeing a bunch of kids who lost and then try to make themselves look like they are so right on the previous government. Like what was mentioned earlier, everyone has their own point of view and we are all still Malaysians regardless of any political party we support. NOBODY is less of a Malaysian if one supports the opposition or more of a Malaysian if they support BN. So, I believe it would be better if you guys just stop being such sore loser and accept the fact that the new government had been formed and move on with life. This is a democratic country. Therefore it would be best if you guys stop with the "hang pi tanya gomen baru engkau yang bangang tu lah apasal minyak tak turun" coz seriously by saying this, nothing will change and only separates us as Malaysians or make families and friends separate.

For the PH supporters:

You guys too need to stop getting your ego inflated until to the extent of making fun and cursing those who supported BN. Just as mentioned above, they are just as Malaysian as you are. All is done and PH had already won and that's the fact now but there is no need of making fun of those who lost. So keep your pants up and move along with life too whatever it is. As the saying goes, "don't ask what the country can do for you but do ask what can you do for the country". So even that your current party had won the elections, you won't be any better than those who supported BN if you don't do anything to help yourself and your country. So just keep it down and let the new government do their jobs.

The reason for this post is i felt so sickening of all the UNNECESSARY name callings, finger pointing and shift blaming as we all should work as a team and create peace among each other only then we will strive to be a better nation comparable to big developed countries. Some say it is a dream that PH won, but to me, there is still ALOT to be done before we can declare ourselves comparable to other developed nations. Afterall, every 5 years, we can choose again if all isn't well.

Let's build this nation peacefully as one big team.

Why not getting it for free?

Well, people must be wondering what does that mean or would probably challenge it as there is a saying "there is no free lunch" in this world. However, it is true that there is NO FREE LUNCH in this world as if you "take" something from someone, you are expected to give something back.

What i meant was not this as it is true we have to work hard and smart to achieve our goals. This context came to my mind when i had a good friend talking to me about purchasing a car (yes, a liability). 

It was a typical Sunday and i was just too lazy to go anywhere except to stay infront of my computer and read up on investing and motivational articles (yes, some would say it's a boring life i have). To me, i find it pretty cool reading these stuff as it builds character and knowledge in a person. Weird? Yeah maybe i am weird but that's what life is, gotta put some elbow grease before you can relax. Now, back to my conversation with my friend about purchasing a car, and not just any car, about purchasing a luxury car. Well, i normally will frown when people talk about this but being sociable, i just played along. 

"Bro, do you know there is a roadshow on the Mercedes and BMW in the Mall today? Don't you want to have a look?", my friend screamed in delight. I paused my "i7 quad core brain" for literally 3 seconds to think of an answer. I guess it's everyone's dream to posses one of these cars as it makes you "feel good" that one can probably show to other people that they are rich. To be fair, i used to like these too but that is out of the system now as i guess my taste for cars have changed dramatically when the new Tesla S is out. 

Ok, but that's beyond the point i'm trying to tell. So, i answered my friend on his question, "nah, i'm no longer interested in fuel burning cars", just to play along to my friend's topic. I'm not too sure if my friend caught the jist of my answer but what my meaning actually was requires several folds of thinking. In short, the Tesla S is currently available in several countries and is making it's way to Malaysia BUT, it is sais that it is going to be given a two year "trial" for the govt and bif VVIP's before they consider about  gettinf it sold in Malaysia. Not to mention the infrastructure that needs to be built like the Tesla "super charging" stations all along the way and etc etc. i believe by the time Tesla S would be in the Malaysian market would come in another 4 years MINIMUM. 

So what's the jist of this? My friend knew too that it will take a while for that car to be sold in Malaysia (if ever successfully accepted). And so he answered, "bro, that's gonna take such a long time more, where can??" (With the Malaysian english  style). I answered, "WHY NOT? What do i have to prove that i need to purchase a beemer or a merc NOW? I want it for FREE". My friend laughed, well, i don't blame him though. So again, what's the jist to my answer?

In conclusion, it's actually very simple if one were to put their minds to it. Yes, Tesla S will take a while to be in the Malaysian market which is perfect for me. So, whatever time it needs to take for it to be in the Malaysian market, gives me time to look for further business OR investment which in turn, with god's blessings, generates more money for me. So, my goal is simple, i want my Tesla S to be provided "FREE" through my investments or business. I am NOT taking out a single cent that is from my savings or borrow money that i don't have to purchase it as, like any other car, it's just another liability. 

I'm not sure my friend got the jist to my answer but actually, given a little thought, it's not difficult to figure it out. Yes, nothing is free in this world and i do know of people who wants to live in that "luxurious" lifestyle and show the entire world through social media on how good their life is, but in actual fact, they can't even provide meals for their families at home while depending on sucking up other people's money by creating all sorts of mishaps. Yes nothing is free and money is hard to come by as it requires alot of hardwork and discipline but you can still get things for "free" if you put your mind and money to work for you, for free...

Raging bulls on both sides....

FCPO

Picture 1, was what I forecasted on 23rd October 2014 that the market would move upwards for the coming weeks. With a beautiful wave and at that time forming the C wave, I targetted it to reach 2293 at that time.

Picture 1

Picture 2, shows that my forecasted target had achieved on the next week after Picture 1 was done. Hence, BINGO! :). It closed even further and closed above 2300 which is poised to give bulls the cutting edge now.

Picture 2

Let's not forget about Soy Bean Oil, Picture 3. As we can see that Soy Bean had also had a big drop and it has been sideways for a while consolidating and had a big break out last week. Nearest target should be 36.57. Breaking that would be all the way to the next target 39.85 and etc etc.

Picture 3

Picture 4, shows that bulls hare going crazy after the last big drop and it has probably taken control now. Breaking 61.8% or 1845 level and now turning it to a support, shorters will definitely be fried for lunch like KFC chicken if they are not careful.

Picture 4

Left off posting anything here for a while. Really had some shifts in the market and we had big swings too.

Anyway, good luck and trade at your own discretion is always the best! :)

Similarities? You decide...

US CBOT Soy Beans

FCPO

I'll be focusing on FCPO more often as it has a better trend pattern than FKLI and also frankly, kinda caught up with work so won't analyze FKLI so much. 

Today's post is gonna be real short. My question here is simple, do you see the similarities? 

So, you decide and plan your strategy. :)

Good luck.

Do I "Play" the market

This was an interesting question I had over the weekend when I was in Genting relaxing with my better half. "Oh u PLAY the market?". I had to pause a short 2-3 seconds to fire up my "intel quad core" brain to search for an answer. Well, of coz, I had to look up deep for a diplomatic answer. After all, he was a friend of mine. 

So my answer was very simple and I answered; "I don't play the market, I trade in the market". It may seem like a vocabulary lesson here but as they say, "what comes out from the mouth is a process of the mind." I've witness people, they think of the market as a "get-rich-quick-no brainer-field" and their "jobs" are the "serious" thing that their doing. To a certain extent, yes, their "jobs" are still their main source of income and they should be serious in everything they do there. However, that doesn't mean the stock/commodities/forex/Bonds/futures and etc markets are a place of "fun". Well, maybe to some people who does this for a "hobby" or fun but 99% of the people in there are just as or more serious than what they are doing.

This is extremely true because I've witness people who thinks he/she can get rich when they enter the market right away..and when they don't make it (which they will most definitely will not make it) start cursing about the market saying it's dangerous, it's risky and the public favorite, it's gambling. My question to them, how long did u study in the university to be an entry point engineer? How long did u study before you became an entry point IT consultant? How long did u study to become an entry level doctor? 3-7 years (maybe 7 for medicine field). And you expect to "make it big" in the market after some so-called book that you read or just a weekend seminar? I'd say you're better off going to casinos then. The thrill is higher there. 

Many people don't realize that it's not the market that is risky. It's the person himself/herself that is risky. Doing something without the knowledge is crazy and definitely at the highest risk one could ever be in. Every trade I make in the market, is a series of calculated risk and reward ratio at the highest level of seriousness I can ever be. It's like me in a relationship, I definitely don't play around in a relationship as I'm serious right to the end.

Hopefully all that, I hope I did answer my friends question. 

Divergences Alert!..But there's still room for the current movement..

Well, simply put it, it had been rough sideways trades for both markets last 1-2 weeks. With issues on Ukraine war tensions and also the crops for Soy Beans are expected to increase with dry spell weather, it had made the market eratic and jumpy, trading on a difficult sideways range. Nevertheless, as we all know that after a sideways movement, a trend will follow..but which one? Let us take a look at these markets:

FCPO

FCPO had been in a downtrend since 11 Mar 2014 and started to do a crazy sideways range trading on 9th April 2014. Nevertheless, there might be a possible bullish divergence forming but has to let the price press down further before the full bullish divergence is formed. As we can see from the chart, prices are dropping while the MACD-H may have shallower curve. The red circle indicates that the 2nd downward curve has yet to be formed and hence it is quite likely that the FCPO may head southwards towards stronger supports at 2535-2540 and also 2490-2500. Stochastics had been heading downwards eversince 29th April 2014 and a gap down on 2nd May 2014 had gave the bears the power. Fibonacci 50% level is at 2526-2530 which can also provide a critical support level before it heads for the 61.8% level at 2434. Candlesticks are still below 12,22,32 EMA and no crossings of the EMA lines had taken place which means the selling pressure ought to continue for a fair bit of time more. 

FKLI

As mentioned earlier, Ukraine tensions had made it a priority in markets beating upbeat job data last week in the USA. The historical high at 1877 is still left uncontested and it seems that 1871.5 is the highest it could go. Candlestick pattern today shows an imminent engulfment that erased all gains from the previous 4 days and  Adding to that, there is a clear bearish divergence between price, MACD-H and Stochastics. However, since it did a pretty big drop today, there may be some rebound first in the morning and then later on continue with the trend.

Personal View:

FCPO: The market may resume the bears a little while more before any bullish divergences may show. Hence, there may still be room for shorting but always have your stops in place. Be ready and alert the market starts to rebound. Place urself full of strategies where u can just switch strategy there and then.

FKLI: I would look for positions to short. Hence, short at strength. 

Time to move back to its opposite direction...

Both markets have been moving at opposite directions either retracing from gains or rebounding from drops. Either way, I believe both markets will be going back to its previous directions and here's why:

FCPO

FCPO had literally erased all its gains that started from Feb 10 2014 but it seems to be bottoming out now from 2600 strong support with a hammer head candle on 3rd Apr 2014 and 4th Apr 2014 showed a pretty convincing likely bottoming out. Stochastics had already turned upwards since 12 Apr 2014 and MACD-H are showing shorter histograms which means prices and movements are ticking upwards. 2691-2700 will be the resistance and breaking that will lead back up to 2917.

FKLI on the other hand takes the other turn as there is a seemingly indication of a bearish divergence in price and MACD-H. With foreign markets which took a slump last Friday 4th Apr 2014, FKLI and KLCI may set to see some retracement. Volume decreases on the rise which also indicates that traders and investors are losing their appetite on the bulls. Stochastic lines have met and is already at a very high point which may indicate an overbought level. Nearest support would be at 1844-1845 and 18477 as its all time high and resistance.

Personal View:

FCPO: There should be some consolidation but 10th Apr 2014 Production and export data is crucial. Hence, expect some roller coaster ride before the trend continues.

FKLI: Be prepared for retracement. There may be a small push first before it consolidates to retrace. 

It's a great run guys, gotta close up someday. ;)

Well, the title of this post came from the movie "The Devil's Advocate" where "the devil" told Kevin Lomax (Keanu Reeves) in the toilet on his winning streak that it will break soon. Seems the same way, more for FCPO than FKLI. With the Ringgit firming up, weaker soy bean activity and the very very marginal increase in Feb 1-.25 export data, FCPO is likely to continue south-wards for probably this entire week. Nevertheless, on the overall trend, it's still a a very nice bullish movement. FKLI on the other hand seems to be moving upwards with slight knee jerks movements. Regional markets took a slight retracement yesterday except for Nikkei which went positive by 213 points. Hence, it would more likely be a sideways but upward bias for FKLI

Let's take a look at the charts for the technical analysis part:

FCPO

As mentioned, ringgit firming, very very marginal increase in export data, weaker soy bean activity yesterday. MACD-H is tracking lower and shortening its bars indicating that prices are slowly correcting while MACD lines are flattening and looks likely to curve down. Stochastics had already crossed down with a substantial number of volume and higher open interest which indicates support for the retracement. Candlestick patterns showed lower prices since Monday and yday with a "graveyard doji" like candlestick, shows that prices could follow down further today. Nevertheless, prices had been going on smoothly upwards on the trend line and the bullish trendline is strongly in-tact. 

FKLI

Like FCPO, FKLI's bullish trendline is still strongly in tact. and with higher lows showing from the past 2 weeks, shows that prices have a strong movement upwards. However, there will be short knee jerks where prices will slump lower but that's a good opportunity to buy and hold. Prices are above all EMA's (12,22,32) and is poised to pick up more steam. Yesterday and today shows more volume on a higher price but both of these days but with doji candle patterns which could indicate that traders are waiting for a confirmation, probably in regional market news. Stochastics have retraced and seems to continue upwards and cross back up. MACD lines have crossed up and moved back into the positive region while MACD-H shows a higher bar supporting the bulls.

Personal View

FCPO: For this few days, take shorts on strength. Watch supports at 2700 and 2690 as it could probably retrace to these levels before continuing the bull.

FKLI: Buy on any weaknesses and hold. Follow buys at 12 and 22 EMA. 

The opposite directions are in control for now but could they stage a U-Turn?

Now, there are alot of chatter that's going on for the two markets. For the KLCI/FKLI index, ever since the new year of 2014 started, it had been dropping like mad. Some say that it was the "kang kung" govt that wanted to show their "kang kung" power and raised the index to crazy heights which does not make sense. It's only 30 counters and hence, very easily manipulated and as we all know, KLCI and FKLI do move in tandem. Others also said could be the foreign funds pulling out even more. On the other hand, FCPO rebounded after a week or so of bears defying export data's which showed big negative numbers. However, it was clearer for FCPO as USDMYR seems to gain strength and has reached previous high again. Also, reported that there would be leaner production this round which will tighten up stocks. Having said that, some are still remaining cautious as exports don't show a good picture and the speculation of lower RM to increase more purchasing from importing countries.

Nevertheless, let's analyze a little bit on these two markets:


FCPO

The good news is, the bullish trend line is still in tact as can be seen in the chart above. 15th Jan has shown the signal of the rebound. Supporting that, USDMYR had been climbing and now it is at 3.316, which was a previous high. Indicators are also showing positive bull movements. Stochastics has crossed up from its low while MACD-H shortens higher. MACD-H and price shows a bullish divergence which means the bulls are ready to push prices higher. MACD lines are curving upwards but has not crossed its signal line. Candlesticks for today are above 12EMA and 12EMA has a curved upwards line which is an indication of bullish powers has return. Having said that, export data for Jan 1-20 was down by 15% and hence, capped down any further bulls for the moment but it is believed that with the weaker ringgit, demand will be more.

FKLI

FKLI on the other hand shows a different direction. It has broken a trend line and as mentioned earlier, dipping since after New Year 2014. With stochastics still crossing down and also MACD lines and MACD-H are still below water. However, today's candle shows a doji sign which marks the market is indecisive on the movement as it has tested 1800, a strong support. Nearest support levels are 1800 and 1786. Today's candle showing that doji may or may not indicate a rebound. It will depend on the fundamentals now. Coming from several days of drop, at current price seems to be the logical current price that makes sense. That is why, maybe there would be a rebound from here. However, candlesticks are trading below all 12,22 and 32EMA. 

Personal View: 

FCPO: 3 days of high bull gaps may attract some retracement. 15-20 points retracement would be a good spot for long positions.

FKLI: Indecisive. Wait for confirmation on next trading day. If there are no signs of recovery, go short on any strength but by candlestick pattern, there should be a rebound