DISCLAIMER: THIS IS A PERSONAL WEBLOG, REFLECTING MY PERSONAL VIEWS. ALL INFORMATION PROVIDED HERE ARE TO SHARE ONLY.THE AUTHOR SHOULD NOT BE HELD LIABLE FOR ANY INFORMATION ERRORS, INCOMPLETENESS, OR DELAYS, OR FOR ANY ACTIONS TAKEN IN RELIANCE ON INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN.

Tuesday, April 23, 2013

Is it yourself? or was it engraved by others..

This is not new. How many of you are there, thinking of doing something that you really want to do but you were stopped by:

1) your own fear
2) your own mind
3) other people telling you, you can't do it
4) people heckling you that it's dumb of you to do it

I've encountered all of them. I feared so much to do what i'm passionate about is because i have commitments. I mean, WHO DOESN'T? Parents, gf, car, dog, cat and etc...(please fill up the rest if i missed them out). But are you going to let them stop you from what you really want to do? For the first two points, (points 1 and 2 above) these are the obstacles that one will encounter. I put them top 2 because those, are the ones you have to beat first and they are normally the toughest. Many people fear that if they drop what they are doing now, and are afraid that if they did not make it on what they are passionate in, they are stuck in the middle. I don't deny that it may or most likely WILL happen. It has happened to me many many times within this 10 months that i'm self-employed. Some can be even spirit breaking, exhausting and stress.

However, let me stress one thing here. Your mind controls your body and hence controls your actions. If you say that, "i can't do it, it's just insanely difficult and there is no guarantee of making it". By saying that, you have given up almost entirely on your dream/passion. Now, do you see it? Nobody did anything to you. YOU just defeated yourself even before you can even start it. Hence, if you say u can't do it, most likely you are definitely not likely to be able to make it because you already set your mind that you won't be able to make it. In the movie "The Secret", they stressed on being positive is because your mind is the attraction of what you think. So, if you have positive thinking, you will attract positive results and the opposite results for the negative thinking. So, that's battle lost straight up even before starting doing anything. Ask yourself this, is that what you really want? To defeat yourself?

Points 3) and 4) are also very typical. I'm pretty sure that you have someone telling you that "It's tough" or "It's impossible for you" or "you can't make it, you're out of your league". Normally, i'll just show a middle finger to these people but nah, why waste my energy right? :). You see, there is a reason for everything and the reason why people do this, is probably that they themselves have not tried it and heard bad things about it OR they couldn't do it themselves and they want to pull you down to the same level as they are. It's plain simple. Even family members (mom, dad, brother, sister, cousin, ah ma...and etc..) will do the same. They are definitely not excluded in this. If you have read my very first post in this blog, i mentioned my mom was one of the biggest demotivator in what i am currently pursuing. She says it's risky, dangerous and will lose everything and she started bringing out failed cases of some family members, friends and friend's children and etc. I don't deny the dangers are there, but it's just like driving an F1 car. You need to have a special license to drive an F1 car before you can even drive it. If you're just getting a normal car license and you drive an F1 car, most likely than not, you'll probably crash and may cost you your life. Same thing here, it's risky to do business, risky to invest, risky to etc....it's risky, if you DO NOT KNOW WHAT YOUR ARE DOING. Same thing like the F1 car, your normal driving license teaches you the normal standard cars driving method with the clutch and gear and so on. F1 cars have gears on the steering wheel and it is a much x1000000000 more powerful car than what you get outside. So, if you don't even know where the clutch is for an F1 car, what do you think you will get? That's right...CRASH! So, what i'm trying to say here is, if you do not have education on it, of course you will lose but if you're well equipped with the knowledge and the skills, then risks are eliminated. What more, maybe you can even control it to your liking.

Now, humans are people with full of emotions and one very common emotion one will have is JEALOUSY. They may see you doing something that they like too but they can't do it themselves and they do not like it that you are proceeding with what they like, they start spreading stupid stories on you or maybe on what you're doing. If you get affected by that, you've lost. I've turned all these negative stories on what i'm doing now from other people into fuel for motivation. And boy, was it good. I've been told by one friend that "just stick to tennis and girls". Of course i felt pissed, afterall i'm only human but what i did was i took his words, put it under "fuel-for-motivation" in my mind and boy, it worked out good. It won't be easy but trust me on this, if you are able to do it, you will see super mind bogging results on this. In the movie "The pursuit for happyness" which was acted by Will Smith and his son, there was a part where his son was just playing around with the basket ball near his rented apartment. His son said "i'm going pro dad! i'm going pro!". Will Smith answered his son "well, you know, when i was a kid i was just average in this. So, you'll probably be the same like me. I don't want you to just go around shooting basketball into the net, alright?". His son felt disappointed but agreed reluctantly. Will Smith saw the disappointed face in his son and said "Hey, don't ever let anybody tell you...you can't do something alright? Not even me. You got a dream, you got to protect it. People can't do something themselves, they wanna tell you you can't do it. If you want something, go get it. Period!"

That's exactly it. Never let anybody tell you you can't do it because this is your own dream. You control whether it will make it or not. Not them. Presevere, don't quit, don't give up no matter how beaten down you are in pursuing your passion/dream. You will fall many many many times before you reach there. I know, coz i fell many times and sometimes takes a while to recover.

So, you've got a passion, just go for it. Don't let points 1,2,3 and 4 stop you. But points 1 and 2 are the hardest as it comes from your own goodself. Beat that and then you have to fight points 3 and 4 from the outside but that would be easier compared to points 1 and 2.

You only live once. Give yourself a chance and go for it! :)

Saturday, April 13, 2013

A rocket can only go up if there is enough fuel..but what happens when the fuel finishes?

It's been really crazy in the market for the past 2 weeks and i believed that the market was "tailored" in it's crazy 2 week rally. 2 big announcements (dissolution of parliament and polling date) but erased and dished aside. With that kind of money, there is only one place that comes from it when investors were mostly sidelined. Yes you got it, our ruling govt, BN/UMNO. They are the ones holding vast majorities of shares of the 30 counters of KLCI. They wanted to make themselves look good right even near elections. Well, they have to or else they'll be in hot soup! It was mentioned in all medias in Malaysia that "foreign funds" were buying up KLCI shares since last week. Is it REALLY foreign funds or are they "stashed aside" corruption cash of these BN/UMNO cronies or what not the entire party outside Malaysia and bringing it back in as "foreign funds"? My bets are definitely that.

However, regional news are also giving this bearish reversal some support on further selling off with US consumer data dropped and worst in 9 months. Not forgetting Euro fears on Cyprus. People are wondering how are they going to cough out 6 billion for the debt deal.

Anyhow, as much as the rocket goes up, it's time for it to come down and today, it had shown a pretty significant or what not, a pretty convincing reversal pattern. Chart shows it.

FKLI Daily Chart
Yellow region shows the sharp and drastic push rally which i call it "BN Supported rally". However, today's candlestick shows a long hammer head candlestick with a roughly significant tail. What's most that today's candle had practically engulfed yesterday's bulls, covered the gap and also closed lower in to the day before yesterday's candle.

Today's volume was higher than the past few days on the drop indicating that people are quickly selling off their positions. MACD-H showing a shorter histogram today which may make the reversal more convincing. MACD lines still look pretty bullish but it seems that it's curving down now.

Force Index showing shallower peaks which is a bearish divergence to price as on each peak, the prices go higher still. Each peak, represent a higher price. With force index showing that it's below 0 line and closed there, shows a sign of weakness to

I seldom use RSI for my trades but i used it today to see if they are overly bought and fair enough, it showed a touch on the 70 line and then resisted all the way down.

Next monday will determine whether it is a reversal or not. What i am suspecting will happen on monday is that it will open with a gap down. With this gap down and the price opens and closes below today's candlestick, will confirm the reversal.

It's time the bears take over as it should have. Just that we had some so called "hot money" or "foreign funds" coming in and buy the index upwards. Hence, if it's within god's will, this bull will go on until elections. Having said that, if BN wins, just sell off everything you have and go LONG and if PR wins, just go the opposite way. :)

Tuesday, April 9, 2013

The passion within...

Seriously people, think about it. What's that passion in yourself that you really want. Take away all the commitments or "i must do this if not.." or "i can't, because...". Take away ALL that and be utterly and truthfully honest with yourself. What is it that you have always wanted to do, what was that dream or passion that when you did it or even thinking to do it, that made you smile?

It's sad to see people, living their lives within a "pay-cheque". Of course, there is definitely nothing wrong with that IF AND ONLY IF one enjoys that and makes him/her smile. I've been through the "pay-cheque" life where i just have to eagerly wait for my pay-cheque to be given to be at the end of the month. I lived in fear not knowing when will i be out of a job. Never really liked my job that time but i just had to stick with it.
But seriously, every successful person out there says the same thing. "Follow your heart" or "Find your passion and follow it". Steve Jobs said the same thing and he made Apple one of the richest company in this planet. Hence, there has to be truth behind all these right? But why many don't embrace and nurture it from within and build on it? That's why, there are only a few successful people but many many are just followers and what not, quitters.

According to Robert Kiyosaki, telling your own children to "study hard and get a good job" is the riskiest thing that a parent can tell a child. I second that without a doubt. Remember i mentioned in my posts earlier on, employment rate now has dropped. Look at europe and the US. Just last week, US posted its jobless claims that risen more than expected. So, is a job safe now a days? At current times, there is no such thing as "i'll keep my employees up to their retirement age of 60 or 65". No such thing now. If the company is not doing well, they will definitely axe off people and guess what, it starts from the above average positions like managers. Simply because their pay is high and they are not really doing anything to seriously make the company moving. Hence, its the ones who are on top (basically the owners or share holders of the company) and also the operation levels. Anything in between are axed. So, is a job REALLY safe now? One can climb to become a manager or so on and that time, probably that person has many commitments and is probably at the age of, probably 40 (give and take). At that age, getting another job is going to be much harder and the problem is, that person had been rooted with what he/she had been working. Hence, it's like a dead end for these people.

So with all these, it's really important to follow your passion and never let anyone tell you that you can't do it. Just like what Will Smith told his son in the movie called "The Pursuit of Happyness". It was an excellent movie beyond doubt and i 100% recommend that movie to people who are aspiring to work towards their passion.

Monday, April 1, 2013

Chart time...

I had several strong requests for me to post some charts on FKLI (Futures KL Index) market and a little "insight" about it. Initially, this blog was mainly supposed to be just more on what my views and thoughts throughout this journey of mine. Anyhow, due to those strong requests, i shall pop in a chart or two from time to time on the futures market in Malaysia.

Now again, i always stress in "doing your own analysis" is because views are just views. They are not the "holy grail" for investments. Even the so-called-experts in the financial world tend to be wrong too. Hence, in other words, learn the trade or walk. A mentor of mine had always mentioned that never depend on tips or views as they will in time confuse you. Learn the trade, know yourself, plan your strategy and go for it. That's all it is.

Ok, as of today, 1st of April 2013, the KLCI and FKLI had really been playing tricks onto investors and traders. Fundamentally, as we all know, we have the elections around the corner. It's just a matter of time and everyone is actually waiting for our "expired" PM to announce when the parliament would be dissolved. It seems to be taking forever! This had made shorters curse like mad as elections should be held soon already. However, till now, parliament is yet to be dissolved. Hence, if we take away that factor of the elections, KLCI and FKLI are still on the strong note. Refer to FKLI Daily chart below.

FKLI Daily Chart as of 1st April 2013

From the technical point of view, it could be a start of a bear reversal after a strong bullish move. For the past 3 candlesticks, showing a doji with the other two small hammer and a gap down on today's candle, it has showed that bears are starting to come in but also with caution. To me, both bulls and bears are trading with caution but those bears that has big capitals are probably not too worried as they have the staying power. Today's movement was a little frustrating for the bears as it dropped pretty sharp right to 1652 but it rebounded all the way up and closed in the green territory at 1664.5 leaving a long shadow again which also shows that the FKLI is still strongly supported from any sharp declines. Candlesticks are still trading above 100EMA which shows that bulls may still be in power.

The beige region shows that the FKLI is doing a very very obvious and big head and shoulders pattern. Something which i have talked about that would form especially near elections in my previous post. Prices and MACD-H are tracing a bearish divergence which can be very suspicious if FKLI continues rising with a shorter MACD-H. Today, MACD-H traced a lower/red histogram which shows that volume and price action towards the bulls are wearing down. Force index dipped slightly below the 0 line showing that bears may continue to reign. 

Despite all these, FKLI did close 78.6% retracement of the fibonacci which was 1663.5. If FKLI opens with a gap up tomorrow, we may be looking for resistance 1678 to be re-tested again. And as earlier mentioned, today's candle showed a small hammer head pattern with a long tail which may show that bulls are still supporting the fall and may continue to push up. 

As i have mentioned in previous post, i am still pretty much bearish and hence, I would say that to short at resistances or short at strength. If FKLI manages to close above 1678 for the day, then we shall see 1690-1700 to be retested again despite the so called "elections" which are coming. If to trade at the bulls side, i would say, keep it intraday as much as possible. Bears, if you're not confident for the next day movement, do intraday too but if positions are taken near big resistances, i believe it should still be fine to hold but do have a stop loss no matter what.