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Saturday, April 13, 2013

A rocket can only go up if there is enough fuel..but what happens when the fuel finishes?

It's been really crazy in the market for the past 2 weeks and i believed that the market was "tailored" in it's crazy 2 week rally. 2 big announcements (dissolution of parliament and polling date) but erased and dished aside. With that kind of money, there is only one place that comes from it when investors were mostly sidelined. Yes you got it, our ruling govt, BN/UMNO. They are the ones holding vast majorities of shares of the 30 counters of KLCI. They wanted to make themselves look good right even near elections. Well, they have to or else they'll be in hot soup! It was mentioned in all medias in Malaysia that "foreign funds" were buying up KLCI shares since last week. Is it REALLY foreign funds or are they "stashed aside" corruption cash of these BN/UMNO cronies or what not the entire party outside Malaysia and bringing it back in as "foreign funds"? My bets are definitely that.

However, regional news are also giving this bearish reversal some support on further selling off with US consumer data dropped and worst in 9 months. Not forgetting Euro fears on Cyprus. People are wondering how are they going to cough out 6 billion for the debt deal.

Anyhow, as much as the rocket goes up, it's time for it to come down and today, it had shown a pretty significant or what not, a pretty convincing reversal pattern. Chart shows it.

FKLI Daily Chart
Yellow region shows the sharp and drastic push rally which i call it "BN Supported rally". However, today's candlestick shows a long hammer head candlestick with a roughly significant tail. What's most that today's candle had practically engulfed yesterday's bulls, covered the gap and also closed lower in to the day before yesterday's candle.

Today's volume was higher than the past few days on the drop indicating that people are quickly selling off their positions. MACD-H showing a shorter histogram today which may make the reversal more convincing. MACD lines still look pretty bullish but it seems that it's curving down now.

Force Index showing shallower peaks which is a bearish divergence to price as on each peak, the prices go higher still. Each peak, represent a higher price. With force index showing that it's below 0 line and closed there, shows a sign of weakness to

I seldom use RSI for my trades but i used it today to see if they are overly bought and fair enough, it showed a touch on the 70 line and then resisted all the way down.

Next monday will determine whether it is a reversal or not. What i am suspecting will happen on monday is that it will open with a gap down. With this gap down and the price opens and closes below today's candlestick, will confirm the reversal.

It's time the bears take over as it should have. Just that we had some so called "hot money" or "foreign funds" coming in and buy the index upwards. Hence, if it's within god's will, this bull will go on until elections. Having said that, if BN wins, just sell off everything you have and go LONG and if PR wins, just go the opposite way. :)

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